Volume 31, Issue 1 (1-2017)                   Med J Islam Repub Iran 2017 | Back to browse issues page

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Hosseini Golkar M, Ghazinoory S S, Saghafi F, Eivazi M, Poursheikhali A, Dehnavieh R. Appropriate types of futures studies scenarios in health. Med J Islam Repub Iran. 2017; 31 (1) :478-483
URL: http://mjiri.iums.ac.ir/article-1-4904-en.html
Faculty of Management, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran, & Institute of Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Shahab, Kerman, Iran. , mhq.golkar@gmail.com
Abstract:   (1532 Views)
Background: Scenario is the primary method in futures studies, and thus its improper use can undermine the credibility and claims of the results. There are many scenario types, and here we aimed at understanding whether these scenarios are being used properly in the health field.
   Methods: In this study, a combination method was used in 3 phases, and 8 + 2 steps were considered to accommodate the needs of the health sector with capabilities of the main types of scenarios. One of the appropriate methods of futures studies was used at each step.
   Results: Scenario planning has evolved along with futures studies paradigms. Trend-based scenarios, intuitive logic, and structural analysis approaches have had the most use in futures scenarios and health section. Quantitative techniques, which are close to the positivist paradigm, have been most widely used; however, participatory methods of futures studies paradigm have been used the least in the health sector.
   Conclusions: Health scenario writing in its current state is targeting short- to medium- term futures and does not respond to all requirements. Thus, other backup methods should also be considered. 
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Type of Study: Original Research | Subject: Futures Studies

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