Medical Journal of the Islamic Republic Of Iran
مجله پزشکی جمهوری اسلامی ایران
Med J Islam Repub Iran
Medical Sciences
http://mjiri.iums.ac.ir
2
journal2
1016-1430
2251-6840
8
10.18869/mjiri
14
8888
13
en
jalali
1393
10
1
gregorian
2015
1
1
29
1
online
1
fulltext
en
Prediction of unwanted pregnancies using logistic regression, probit regression and discriminant analysis
Gynecology & Obstetrics
Gynecology & Obstetrics
Original Research
Original Research
<p> <strong> Background: </strong>Unwanted pregnancy not intended by at least one of the parents has undesirable consequences for the family and the society. In the present study, three classification models were used and compared to predict unwanted pregnancies in an urban population.</p>
<p> <strong> Methods </strong>: In this cross-sectional study, 887 pregnant mothers referring to health centers in Khorramabad, Iran, in 2012 were selected by the stratified and cluster sampling relevant variables were measured and for prediction of unwanted pregnancy, logistic regression, discriminant analysis, and probit regression models and SPSS software version 21 were used. To compare these models, indicators such as sensitivity, specificity, the area under the ROC curve, and the percentage of correct predictions were used.</p>
<p> <strong> Results </strong>: The prevalence of unwanted pregnancies was 25.3%. The logistic and probit regression models indicated that parity and pregnancy spacing, contraceptive methods, household income and number of living male children were related to unwanted pregnancy. The performance of the models based on the area under the ROC curve was 0.735, 0.733, and 0.680 for logistic regression, probit regression, and linear discriminant analysis, respectively.</p>
<p> <strong> Conclusion </strong>: Given the relatively high prevalence of unwanted pregnancies in Khorramabad, it seems necessary to revise family planning programs. Despite the similar accuracy of the models, if the researcher is interested in the interpretability of the results, the use of the logistic regression model is recommended.</p>
Unwanted Pregnancy, Logistic regression, Discriminant Analysis, Probit Regression, Khorramabad.
828
832
http://mjiri.iums.ac.ir/browse.php?a_code=A-10-1-888&slc_lang=en&sid=1
Farzad
Ebrahimzadeh
farzadebrahimzadeh2012@gmail.com, ebrahimzadeh@modares.ac.ir
200319475328460020063
200319475328460020063
No
Department of Statistics and Epidemiology, Faculty of Health and Nutrition, Lorestan University of Medical Sciences, Khorramabad, & PhD Candidate in Biostatistics, Department of Biostatistics, Faculty of Medical Sciences, TarbiatModares University, Tehran, Iran.
Ebrahim
Hajizadeh
hajizadeh@modares.ac.ir
200319475328460020064
200319475328460020064
No
Department of Biostatistics, Faculty of Medical Sciences, TarbiatModares University, Tehran, Iran.
Nasim
Vahabi
nasim.vahabi@modares.ac.ir
200319475328460020065
200319475328460020065
No
Department of Biostatistics, Faculty of Medical Sciences, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.
Mohammad
Almasian
almasian2@gmail.com
200319475328460020066
200319475328460020066
No
Department of the English Language, Faculty of Medicine, Lorestan University of Medical Sciences, Khorramabad, Iran.
Katayoon
Bakhteyar
k_bakhteyar@yahoo.com
200319475328460020067
200319475328460020067
Yes
Department of Public Health, Faculty of Health and Nutrition, Lorestan University of Medical Sciences, Khorramabad, Iran.