Medical Journal of the Islamic Republic Of Iran
مجله پزشکی جمهوری اسلامی ایران
Med J Islam Repub Iran
Medical Sciences
http://mjiri.iums.ac.ir
2
journal2
1016-1430
2251-6840
8
10.18869/mjiri
14
8888
13
en
jalali
1395
10
1
gregorian
2017
1
1
31
1
online
1
fulltext
en
Foresight in health sciences using Causal Layered Analysis method
Health Management and Economics
Health Management and Economics
Original Research
Original Research
<strong>Background: </strong>Development in health is not possible without progress of science. Rapid changes in the various areas make the future health system more complex and risky. Therefore, foresight of health sciences is very important.<br>
<strong> Methods:</strong> This futures studies was conducted in 4 steps; also, literature and documents review, statistics and information review, focus group discussions, working group, and scenario planning were used. Causal layered analysis (CLA) was used for data analysis and syntactic as main frameworks.<br>
<strong> Results:</strong> The findings in legal health sciences documents revealed that the value system was not defined clearly and coherently and that logical linkage among myths, discourse, and social structural layers was ambiguous. In trend analysis, 24 trends were recognized; however, political and economic streams were strong, independent, and uncertain factors which created 4 main scenarios although the social and environmental factors divided them into 16 subscenario tunnels. Postmodern discourse in probability scenarios will be dominant and science will be understood as tools for generation of wealth. University structure will be decentralized and transformed into similar R&D to join the health industry, and our quantitative growth (articles, disciplines, and students) in health sciences will decrease. <br>
<strong> Conclusion:</strong> If the current trends (probability scenarios) continue, we will move to an undesirable situation. The main challenge in this regard is the lack of a unique and dominant discourse in health sciences based on the Islamic Republic of Iran doctrine. Therefore, in this study, shifting the paradigm by a new approach and discipline in the health sciences is suggested.
Casual layered analysis, Health sciences, High level documents, Foresight
492
499
http://mjiri.iums.ac.ir/browse.php?a_code=A-10-1-1116&slc_lang=en&sid=1
AliAkbar
Haghdoost
200319475328460035535
200319475328460035535
No
Modeling in Health Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran.
Samira Sadat
Pourhosseini
200319475328460035536
200319475328460035536
No
Health Services Management Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran.
Mozhgan
Emami
200319475328460035537
200319475328460035537
No
Health Services Management Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran.
Reza
Dehnavieh
200319475328460035538
200319475328460035538
No
Medical Informatics Research Centre, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran.
Tahmineh
Barfeh
200319475328460035539
200319475328460035539
No
Health Services Management Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran.
Mohammad Hossein
Mehrolhassani
mhmhealth@gmail.com
200319475328460035540
200319475328460035540
Yes
Health Services Management Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran.