Medical Journal of the Islamic Republic Of Iran
مجله پزشکی جمهوری اسلامی ایران
Med J Islam Repub Iran
Medical Sciences
http://mjiri.iums.ac.ir
2
journal2
1016-1430
2251-6840
8
10.18869/mjiri
14
8888
13
en
jalali
1399
10
1
gregorian
2021
1
1
35
1
online
1
fulltext
en
Epidemiology incidence and geographical distribution of Pertussis using GIS and its incidence prediction in Iran in 2021
Epidemiology
Epidemiology
Original Research
Original Research
<strong>Background: </strong>Pertussis is a respiratory tract infection caused by Bordetella pertussis, which causes inflammation of the lungs and respiratory tract. The purpose of this study was to investigate the incidence and geographical distribution of pertussis using the geographic information system (GIS) and to predict its incidence in Iran in 2021.<br>
<strong>Methods:</strong> This was a descriptive analytical study. Information on pertussis was obtained from the Center for Communicable Diseases Control during 2009-2015. In the next step, the ArcGIS 9.3 was used to prepare geographic maps of the disease incidence and frequency. Therefore, the disease prediction map was drawn.<br>
using the Raster Calculator tool.<br>
<strong>Results: </strong>The results showed that the highest incidence of pertussis during 2009-2015 was in Zanjan, Qom, Mazandaran, and Qazvin provinces. The incidence of pertussis in Iran increased from 0.74 in 2009 to 1.53 in 2015. Based on the modeling results for Iran, Qom, Mazandaran, Tehran, Qazvin, and Zanjan provinces, with 76.76%, 73.69%, 66.32%, 30.94% and 24.18% of their areas (Km2), are at high risk for pertussis in the coming years, respectively.<br>
<strong>Conclusion:</strong> The incidence of the disease has been increasing in recent years, indicating the emergence of the disease in Iran. The modeling maps show that the Iranian provinces of Qom, Tehran, Zanjan, and Qazvin are at risk of the disease incidence in the coming years, indicating the need for planning, appropriate interventions and more precise implementation of the vaccination program against the disease.<br>
<strong><span dir="RTL"></span></strong>
Incidence, Prediction, Pertussis, GIS, Iran
822
828
http://mjiri.iums.ac.ir/browse.php?a_code=A-10-5715-3&slc_lang=en&sid=1
Seyed Mohsen
Zahraei
zahraeicdc@gmail.com
200319475328460064740
200319475328460064740
No
Center for Communicable Diseases Control, Ministry of Health and Medical Education, Tehran, Iran
Parvin
Mohamadi
pmohamadi@yahoo.com
200319475328460064741
200319475328460064741
No
Department of Medical Sciences, Sanandaj Branch, Islamic Azad University, Sanandaj, Iran
Ghobad
Moradi
moradi_gh@yahoo.com
200319475328460064742
200319475328460064742
No
Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Research Institute for Health Development, Kurdistan University of Medical Sciences, Sanandaj, Iran
Samira
Shirzadi
samirashirzadi@yahoo.com
200319475328460064743
200319475328460064743
No
Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran
Fatemeh
Azimian
fatemehazimian@yahoo.com
200319475328460064744
200319475328460064744
No
Iranian Center for Communicable Disease Control, Ministry of Health & Medical Education, Tehran, Iran
Zaher
Khazaei
zaherkhazaei@yahoo.com
200319475328460064745
200319475328460064745
No
Department of Public Health, School of Medicine, Dezful University of Medical Sciences, Dezful, Iran
Hasan
Naemi
naemi.h.2015@gmail.com
200319475328460064746
200319475328460064746
No
Cellular and Molecular Research Center, Sabzevar University of Medical Sciences, Sabzevar, Iran
Elham
Goodarzi
goodarzi.e@lums.ac.ir
200319475328460064747
200319475328460064747
Yes
Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Lorestan University of Medical Sciences, Khorramabad, Iran