Medical Journal of The Islamic Republic of Iran (MJIRI)

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Background: The Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has created chaos across the globe. Health care workers having close contact with infected individuals play a decisive role in infection control. This study assessed the level of knowledge, attitude, practice (KAP) and perceived stress among health care workers of Karachi, Pakistan.
   Methods: A cross sectional study was performed between March 11, 2020 and March 25, 2020 among health care workers of Karachi, Pakistan. Data were collected through an online, self-administered questionnaire. The level of KAP was categorized using modified Bloom’s cut off point. Chi-square test, independent sample t test, and one-way ANOVA were used to analyze the data with Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 24.0.
   Results: A total of 304 health care workers responded to the survey. The most popular source of information was found to be TV/radio/newspaper. Although 54.3%, 75%, and 58.9% respondents had good knowledge, good attitude, and good practice, respectively, more than 40% of respondents did not use gloves during patient interaction. Most of participants rated their level of knowledge as moderate and were inclined towards the need for more training. Around 80% of participants had either moderate stress or severe perceived stress.
   Conclusion: Our study revealed a relatively good level of KAP among respondents, but there is a need for further training programs. This study yielded high stress levels among respondents, with personal and family safety being the main concerns. The government should, therefore, take proper measures to alleviate the stress levels to provide a strong frontline force.

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    Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is caused by a new severe acute respiratory syndrome Coronavirus. COVID-19 patients are at risk for acute respiratory distress syndrome and death from respiratory failure.
   Methods: In this study the complete genome of the SARS-CoV-2 reference sequence, geologically isolated types, and Coronavirus related to human diseases were compared by the Molecular Phylogenetic Maximum Likelihood method. The secondary and tertiary structures of the main protease of SARS-CoV were defined as the most similar viruses to SARS-CoV-2, aligned with chimera software. Therefore, considering ineffective antiviral medications used for SARS-CoV and the importance of preventing acute respiratory distress syndrome as the main cause of mortality, 2 strategies were adopted to acquire the most effective drug combination.
   Results: The results of phylogenic analysis showed that SARS-CoV is the most similar virus to SARS-CoV-2. The secondary structure and superimposing of tertiary structure did not show a significant difference between SARS and SARS-CoV-2 3C-like main protease and the root means square deviation between Cα atoms did not support the difference between the 2 protein structures. Thus, these 2 mechanisms were fostered in accordance with the correlation between acute respiratory distress syndrome-related Coronavirus, angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 on one side and the possible treatments for reducing the respiratory side effects on the other. The analysis of renin-angiotensin system as well as the tested drugs applied to acute respiratory distress syndrome cases, indicated that angiotensin II receptor blockers, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, and C21 as nonpeptide agonist might possess a promising modality of treatment for acute respiratory distress syndrome. Furthermore, implementing recombinant human ACE2 as a competitive receptor might be an effective way to trap and chelate the SARS-CoV-2 particles.
   Conclusion: The data suggest that combination therapy of angiotensin II receptor blockers and C21 could be a potential pharmacologic regimen to control and reduce acute respiratory distress syndrome. Moreover, rhACE2 can be recommended as an effective protective antiviral therapy in the treatment of COVID-19 and its complications.

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Background: Since the outbreak of the novel coronavirus disease from Wuhan, China, in early December 2019, many scientists focused on this infection to find a way to deal with it. Due to the dramatic scientific growth in this field, we conducted a scientometric study to gain a better understanding of the scientific literature on COVID-19.
   Methods: We extracted all COVID-19 documents indexed in the Scopus from December 1, 2019, to April 1, 2020, without any language limitation and determined their bibliometric characteristics, including document type, open accessibility status, citation counting, H-index, top cited documents, the most productive countries, institutions and journals, international collaboration, the most frequent terms and keywords, journal bibliographic coupling and cocitations.
   Results: A total of 923 documents on COVID-19 were retrieved, of which 418 were original articles. All documents had received 2551 citations with an average citation of 2.76 per document and an h-index of 23. China ranked first with 348 documents, followed by the United States (n = 160). The Lancet and BMJ Clinical Research Ed published the most documents (each with 74 documents) and 2 institutions (University of Hong Kong and Huazhong University of Science and Technology) ranked first in this regard. In addition, the present study analyzed the top 25 highly-cited documents (those that had received 70% of all citations).
   Conclusion: This study highlighted the focused subjects on various aspects of COVID-19 literature such as pathogenesis, epidemiology, transmission, diagnosis, treatment, prevention, and its complications.

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Background: The rapid outbreak of COVID-19 has resulted in a global pandemic in 2020. Information sources such as disease registries through accessing quality, valid, accurate, and timely data empower researchers and health authorities to study and develop appropriate actions. Our study describes the protocol for implementation of regional COVID-19 registry in Hormozgan province (RCovidRH).
   Methods: We followed approved phases for the development of RCovidRH to cover the population in Hormozgan. Missioned to develop and implement the protocol, the registry’s steering committee was made up of 10 members from subject fields of the registry at the core and 5 subgroups. The main purpose of the registry is to provide a comprehensive information profile of demographic, clinical, laboratory, imaging, and treatment data of confirmed and probable COVID-19 patients in Hormozgan. The data is retrospectively and prospectively collected. Case report form (CRF) was mainly based on International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infection Consortium (ISARIC) CRF. A web-based, 2-language software was also developed to facilitate data collection and storage. Data analysis is to be conducted with collaboration of clinical physicians, data-mining specialists, and epidemiologists after reaching appropriate sample size.
   Results: We included data related to demographic and identification, onset and admission, signs and symptoms at hospital admission, admission signs and symptoms, comorbidities, pathogen testing, assessment, laboratory, imaging, complications, treatment and medication, and outcomes. We found this registry was limited by incomplete clinical data for small fraction of outpatients, incomplete or inaccurate address by referred people due to fear of social rejection, delay in data entry at the facilities due to workload.
   Conclusion: This registry via organizing clinical and epidemiological COVID-19 data increases the potentiality of joint studies. Recognition and coordination of a registry is highly important to solve its limitations to collect data. Other universities and provinces can apply our model to develop COVID-19 registries or data sets for this disease. 
 

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Background: The occurrence of anosmia/hyposmia during novel Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) may indicate a relationship between coincidence of olfactory dysfunction and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). This study aimed to assess the frequency of self-reported anosmia/hyposmia during COVID-19 epidemic in Iran.
   Methods: This population-based cross sectional study was performed through an online questionnaire from March 12 to 17, 2020. Cases from all provinces of Iran voluntarily participated in this study. Patients completed a 33-item patient-reported online questionnaire, including smell and taste dysfunction and their comorbidities, along with their basic characteristics and past medical histories. The inclusion criteria were self-reported anosmia/hyposmia during the past 4 weeks, from the start of COVID-19 epidemic in Iran.
   Results: A total of 10 069 participants aged 32.5±8.6 (7-78) years took part in this study, of them 71.13% women and 81.68% nonsmokers completed the online questionnaire. The correlation between the number of olfactory disorders and reported COVID-19 patients in all provinces up to March 17, 2020 was highly significant (Spearman correlation coefficient = 0.87, P< 0.001). A sudden onset of olfactory dysfunction was reported in 76.24% of the participations and persistent anosmia in 60.90% from the start of COVID-19 epidemic. In addition, 80.38% of participants reported concomitant olfactory and gustatory dysfunctions.
   Conclusion: An outbreak of olfactory dysfunction occurred in Iran during the COVID-19 epidemic. The exact mechanisms by which anosmia/hyposmia occurred in patients with COVID-19 call for further investigations.
 

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Background: Iran reported its first COVID-19 deaths on February 19, 2020 and announced 1284 deaths with a laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection by March 19, 2020 (end of the winter 1398 SH). We estimated all-cause excess mortality, compared to the historical trends, to obtain an indirect estimate of COVID-19-related deaths.
   Methods: We assembled time series of the seasonal number of all-cause mortalities from March 21, 2013 (spring of 1392 SH) to March 19, 2020 (winter 1398 SH) for each province of Iran and nationwide with the vital statistics data from the National Organization for Civil Registration (NOCR). We estimated the expected seasonal mortality and excess mortality (the difference between the number of registered and expected deaths). Moreover, we reviewed the provincial number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 to assess their association with excess deaths.
   Results: The results of our analysis showed around 7507 (95% CI: 3,350 – 11,664) and 5180 (95% CI: 1,023 – 9,337) all-cause excess mortality in fall and winter, respectively. There were 3778 excess deaths occurred in Qom, Gilan, Mazandaran, and Golestan provinces in the winter, all among the COVID-19 epicenters based on the number of confirmed cases. 
   Conclusion: We think most of the excess deaths in the winter were related to COVID-19. Also, we think the influenza epidemic might have been the main reason for the excess mortality in the fall and parts of excess deaths in the winter of 1398 SH. Moreover, a review of all available clinical and paraclinical records and through analyses of the surveillance data for severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) can help to obtain a more accurate estimate of COVID-19 mortality.

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Background: There is sparse information to describe the clinical features and outcomes of patients infected with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).
    Methods: In a single-center retrospective observational study, 50 patients infected with COVID-19 were studied. Epidemiological, demographic, clinical, laboratory, radiological, and treatment data were collected and analyzed. Outcomes of critically ill patients and noncritically ill patients were compared.
    Results: The mean age of the patients was 48.8 years, with male predominance. Dry cough, fever, and dyspnea were the most complaining symptoms on admission. Chronic medical illnesses before admission were present in 56% of the patients. The most common laboratory abnormalities were lymphopenia, neutrophilia, thrombocytopenia, increased aspartate aminotransferase, high serum creatinine level, elevated lactate dehydrogenase, and increasing ESR and CRP levels. Bilateral mixed ground-glass opacity and consolidation were observed in chest CT scan of most patients. Some patients required supplemental oxygen and some needed invasive mechanical ventilation. Blood oxygen saturation was different between survivors and nonsurvivors. 10% of patients died, of whom 60% were men. 40% of dead cases had chronic medical illnesses; 60% underwent invasive mechanical ventilation.
   Conclusion: Among the patients diagnosed with COVID-19 infection, the frequent clinical presentation was with a wide range of signs and symptoms. The laboratory changes suggest that COVID-19 infection may be related to cellular immune deficiency, myocardial, hepatic, and kidney injury. Additional research is needed to elucidate COVID-19 pathogenesis.
 

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The Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which was declared to be pandemic on March 12, 2020, is the latest health concern worldwide. COVID-19 patients may develop cerebrovascular complications either during the course of COVID-19 or even as an initial presentation of the disease. Herein, a case of myocarditis in a COVID-19 patient without any respiratory signs and symptoms is presented.

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Background: COVID-19 pandemic crisis motivated researchers worldwide to deeply investigate it from different perspectives. As Iran is one of the highly-affected countries by Covid-19, Iranian researchers have focused on studying it. This study aimed at analyzing and visualizing Iranian researchers' papers on COVID-19 from a bibliometric perspective.
   Methods: By searching MeSH-selected keywords related to COVID-19 in Scopus, Iranian researchers' papers on COVID-19 were extracted in a CSV format and underwent bibliometric techniques, such as coauthorship analysis, citation, and co-citation analysis, keyword and term co-occurrence mapping and etc. in the Microsoft Excel and VOSviewer software package.   
   Results: A total of 405 papers were authored by Iranian researchers on COVID-19 during the study period, with the average number of citations per paper of 2.60 and a mean h-index of 15. The majority of papers were original articles in English. Archives of Clinical Infectious Diseases and Archives of Iranian Medicine and Medical Hypotheses were highly ranked publishing journals, respectively. The most productive institute and author were Tehran University of Medical Sciences with 119 papers and Rezaei, N. with 12 papers. Iranian researchers collaborated with the researchers of 73 countries, with the USA ranking first in Covid-19 research, followed by Italy, Canada, and United Kingdom. In publishing papers on COVID-19, Iran ranked first among the Middle Eastern countries and thirteenth internationally.
   Conclusion: Iranian researchers were active in 5 main areas of COVID-19 research, including epidemiology, diagnosis, treatment, virology, and systematic review. 

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Background: The COVID-19 infection is a novel virus that mainly targets the respiratory system via specific receptors without any coronavirus-targeted therapies. Many efforts have been made to prepare specific vaccines for COVID-19 or use of prefabricated vaccines of other similar viruses, especially severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), and influenza (flu). We aimed to evaluate the effects of previous flu vaccine injection on severity of incoming COVID-19 infection.
   Methods: We conducted a large cross-sectional study of 529 hospitalized Iranian COVID patients to evaluate the severity of disease courses in patients with or without previous flu vaccination history using some main factors like length of hospitalization, need for the intensive care unit (ICU) admission and length of stay in the ICU for comparison between COVID-19 infected patients with or without flu vaccination history. For the quantitative data, we used independent-samples t and Mann-Whitney tests. The qualitative data were calculated using the Fisher exact and chi-square tests in IBM SPSS Statistics version 22 (SPSS Inc) and P value <0.05 was considered statistically significant.
   Results: There were no significant differences in the demographic data of patients, disease, and severity-related parameters between the 2 groups. It means that there were not any significant differences between patients with and without history of flu vaccination regarding mean days of hospitalization, percentage of needing to be admitted to the ICU, days being admitted to the ICU (8.44±6.36 vs 7.94±8.57; 17% vs 11.5%; and 1.17±3.09 vs 0.92±3.04, retrospectively) (p=0.883, 0.235, and 0.809, respectively).
In the laboratory tests, in comparison between patients with and without history of previous flu vaccination, only lymphocytes count in the vaccine positive group was higher than the vaccine negative group (20.82±11.23 vs 18.04±9.71) (p=0.067) and creatine phosphokinase (CPK) levels were higher in the vaccine negative group (146.57±109.72 vs 214.15±332.06) (p=0.006).
   Conclusion: We did not find any association between flu vaccination and decrease in disease severity in our patients.  It seems that patients with previous history of flu vaccination may experience less laboratory abnormalities in some parameters that could be interpreted in favor of lower overall inflammation; however, this study cannot answer this definitely because of its design. As we collected retrospective data from only alive discharged patients and had no healthy control group, we could not discuss the probable effect of the vaccine on the mortality rate or its probable protective role against the infection. We need more well-designed controlled studies with different populations in different geographic areas to address the controversies.   

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Background: The COVID-19 infection is a novel virus without any specific targeted therapies; thus, focusing on primary epidemiologic concerns, preventive strategies, risk factors, exacerbation factors, and mortality-related factors are of great importance to better control this disorder. There are some controversies about the factors associated with COVID-19 in different theories, and addiction is no exception.
   Methods: We conducted a large cross-sectional study of 513 hospitalized Iranian patients with COVID-19 infection to evaluate the severity of disease courses in patients with or without history of opium addiction. We recorded these data retrospectively after patients’ discharge from the hospital. For the quantitative data, we used independent-samples t and Mann-Whitney tests. The qualitative data were calculated using Fisher exact and chi-square tests in IBM SPSS Statistics Version 22. Also, p<0.05 was considered statistically significant.
   Results: There was no significant difference regarding mean days of hospitalization in opium positive and negative groups (7.95±8.39 vs 8.35±5.11, respectively) (p=0.771); however, the need for intensive care unit (ICU) admission was significantly higher in the opium positive group (36% vs 11%) (p=0.005). The mean days of ICU stay was significantly higher in the opium positive group (2.36±3.81 vs 0.86±2.90) (p=0.026). The percentage of febrile patients, anosmia/hyposmia, and dysgeusia at the initiation of hospitalization was significantly lower in the opium positive group (39% vs 66%; 8% vs 23%; 8% vs; 20%, respectively) (p=0.002, 0.018, and .031, respectively). In the laboratory tests, only the white blood cell (WBC) count and the segmented cells were higher in the opium positive group (10.1±6.60 vs 7.38±4.14 and 73±20.47 vs 56.5±32.60, respectively) (p=0.018 and .001, respectively) and lymphocytes were lower in the opium positive (15.60±8.25 vs18.70±10.12) (p=0.048). Opium addicts had a significantly lower rate of azithromycin and lopinavir/ritonavir prescription in their initiation therapy (19% vs 34%, and 47% vs 70%, respectively) (p=0.038 and 0.012, respectively).
   Conclusion: Opium addict patients with COVID infection may be more febrile and experience more disease-specific symptoms and more severe disease course. These patients may show more evidence of laboratory inflammation and probable superinfections, so may manage with more caution and somehow different therapeutic regimen.

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Background: Objectives were to investigate aspects of the COVID-19 epidemics via testing the individuals who were referred to Aramesh Medical Laboratory in Tehran and to integrate the molecular results with epidemiological data since the beginning of the epidemic.
    Methods: In this cross-sectional Study 77528 outpatients were referred to Aramesh Medical laboratory by physicians for the diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection between March 2019 and May 2021. Viral acid nucleic extracted from nasal and throat specimens and subsequently amplified using Reverse Transcriptase Real-Time PCR. Laboratory data including Ct values compared with epidemic peaks of COVID-19 countrywide. Statistical Analysis was done by SPSS 21 Software.
   Results: 14312 (18.46%) tested positive.36.5% of the positive cases were in the 30 to 39 years old age group. The positive result rate was significantly different based on months, ranging from 6% to 28%, compatible with four recognized epidemic peaks encompassing the end of March through the first week of April (first epidemic peak), from June to July 2020 (second epidemic peak),  October until mid of November 2020 (third epidemic wave) followed by the end of April to May 2021 (until the end period of study, in the middle of 4th peak). In 37.8% of cases, the Ct value was between 21 and 28. Two separate trends were seen for Ct ≤ 25 and Ct ≤ 20  for the first and fourth epidemic peaks, respectively. There was an association between the number of total monthly positive results and total deaths in the country, especially with the  second to third peaks (in the course of summer 2020) and fourth epidemic peak.
   Conclusion: It might be useful to consider laboratory admission rates as an indicator for changes in the epidemic level in the country to continue the SARS-CoV-2 surveillance in accordance with public decision-makers.

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Background: Human infection affected by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has been recognized as a global health concern. We report the epidemiological and clinical characteristics of patients with a familial cluster of SARS-CoV-2 from Qazvin province (located in the northwest of Iran).
   Methods: In this cross-sectional study, we enrolled 332 hospitalized patients that were confirmed SARS-CoV-2 diseases with laboratory-based (PT-PCR) test in Qazvin province, Iran. Having family infection transmission and subsequently, family clustering of SARS-COV-2 disease was assessed with the Generalized Estimating Equation model in patients.
   Results: Crude odds ratio estimates of creating family clustering of SARS-CoV-2 infection was 0.47 times [95% CI: 0.23, 0.98, p=0.045] less for female compared to the males; 2.26 [95% CI: 1.11, 4.58, p=0.024] and 2.69 [95% CI: 1.47, 4.93, p=0.001] for SARS-CoV-2 patients that had digestive and muscle pain in comparison with those did not this mentioned symptoms, respectively. 1.52 [95% CI: 1.05, 2.23, p=0.024] for patients with a longer hospitalization compared with patients that had shorter duration of hospitalization and adjusted odds ratio estimates were 2.13 [95% CI: 1.12, 4.03, p=0.020] for patients who receive public health services in comparison those did not receive public health services.
   Conclusion: Our findings confirm the person-to-person transmission of this novel coronavirus in family settings and hospitals, and the reports of infected travelers in other geographical regions. Major gaps in our knowledge about the potential factors in creating family clustering of SARS-CoV-2 infection, epidemiology, duration of human transmission and etc. need fulfillment by future studies.

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Background: COVID-19 is currently the leading global health issue. Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) face challenges in supplying COVID-19 vaccines. To assess an adjunctive preventive measure for COVID-19 burden, we aimed to evaluate the relationship of influenza vaccination in the previous year with outcomes of COVID-19 in affirmed cases after adjustment for relevant factors.
   Methods: This prospective study was conducted using the provincial registry of confirmed COVID-19 cases in East-Azerbaijan province in North-West of Iran. The main outcomes were COVID-19 mortality and hospitalization. The influenza vaccination history in 2019 was collected by phone calls. Data analysis was done by SPSS software version 16, separately for healthcare workers and the general population. The logistic regression model was applied to compare the covariates in influenza vaccinated versus unvaccinated patients.
   Results: From 1 March to 10 October 2020, 17,213 positive COVID-19 cases were registered, of which 916 patients were included. A total of 88 patients (9.6%) deceased due to COVID-19. Two hundred subjects (21.8%) reported receiving the influenza vaccine during the past year. Healthcare workers had a significantly higher vaccination rate than the general population (28.9% vs. 7.1%; p<0.001). After adjustment for socioeconomic and health covariates, the vaccinated cases in the general population had 84% lower odds of death (OR: 0.16; 95%CI: 0.05-0.60; p=0.017). In multivariate analysis, the influenza vaccination history in the previous year was not significantly related to the lower COVID-19 hospitalization rate.
    Conclusion: The flu vaccination rate was not optimal in our community. The flu vaccination can be an independent preventing factor for COVID-19 mortality in the general population. The influenza vaccine can be considered as an effective adjutant preventive countermeasure for the COVID-19 burden.

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Background: The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus. The first known receptor for this virus in the human body is angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2), the same receptor for the SARS virus.
   Methods: A total of 38 hospitalized adult (18 years) patients with laboratory or clinically confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) were identified in the infectious disease ward of Tehran Imam Khomeini hospital complex in this single-center cross-sectional study. A blood sample was taken at the time of hospitalization and a second one was taken 48 hours later. Blood samples are kept frozen at -80 degrees Celsius. After the complete collection of samples, the ACE2 level of the samples was measured using a serum sACE2 detection ELISA kit.  The data were analyzed using SPSS v26. P value of 0.05 was considered statistically significant. An analysis of covariance was performed to examine the mean differences in day 7 serum ACE2 concentration among the 2 groups after adjusting for the baseline serum ACE2 concentration. The 1-way multivariate analysis of variance was used to determine whether there were any differences between independent groups (mechanical ventilation yes/no) on serum ACE2 levels at 3 different times.
   Results: The mean age of patients was 64.13 ± 16.49 years, 21 patients (55.3%) were men, 16 patients (42%) were polymerase chain reaction test positive, and 15 patients (39.5%) died. A total of 35 individuals (92.1%) had chest computed tomography images that indicated lung involvement. A comparison of the 2 groups of patients who died and were discharged revealed that serum ACE2 at the first (p=0.033) and third (7th day) measurements were statistically different (p=0.026). Patients had a mean of serum ACE2. The results indicated that the day 7 serum ACE2 concentration did significantly differ between the 2 groups after controlling for the baseline serum ACE2 concentration (p=0.023). The model explained about 73.61% of the variance in the 7-day serum ACE2 concentration. Specifically, after adjusting for the baseline concentration, survived patients had the lowest level of serum ACE2 concentration (1 ± 0.65) on the 7th day compared with the deceased patient group (2.83 ± 1.12).
   Conclusion: Soluble ACE2 in the serum of COVID-19 patients who died, later on, was significantly higher than the discharged patients when the samples were taken seven days after admission. It is suggested that serum soluble ACE2 level could be used as a prognostic factor for COVID-19 patients’ outcomes and also their need for mechanical ventilation.

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Background: Scenarios are the most efficient methods to explore our uncertainty about the future. Even with increasing utilization, the majority of scenarios still fall short of meeting the future “uncertainties” in health. This article examines one of the most sensitive encounters of the health system with uncertainties—COVID-19 pandemic—and the type of uncertainty analysis in health scenarios to discuss the importance and determine the existing gaps while providing a better mechanism for scenario planning in the health system.
   Methods: To examine the extent, range, and nature of scenario research, a preliminary mapping of the existing literature, summarizing research findings, and identifying research gaps, we have taken help from the Arksey and O'Malley (2005) model and to improve the quality of the results, we have also used the PRISMA framework. To identify the studies relevant to the issue, the PubMed and Embase databases were searched for peer-reviewed published articles.  All peer reviewed articles from January 01, 2020, to December 31, 2020, were included in this review. The search strategy was mainly the systematic use of English keywords such as “coronavirus,” “covid-19,” “SARS-CoV-2,” “2019-ncov,” and scenario. To improve the search sensitivity, subject searching based on MeSh and Emtree keywords was used.
   Results: It is crucial to identify the health domains where the scenarios can be used. The major ideas that were covered and their variations would also be identified using these different scenarios. Based on the selected articles, we can answer some critical questions. First, in which health fields is the scenario method used? Second, what are the key concepts in these studies, and third, what is the difference between them? Policy, epidemiology, and economics use futures studies scenarios more than other social science disciplines in health. Furthermore, we have looked at the fact that selecting the appropriate kind, utilizing new methodologies, and emphasizing uncertainty analysis are the core difficulties associated with health case scenarios.
   Conclusion: Based on examining the existing indicators in the health scenarios, establishing the “uncertainty analysis” as the basis can improve scenario planning in this field. Also, if scenario planning is done as a process based on uncertainty analysis, it is more accurate and helps make better decisions in the field of health.
 

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Background: Severe and critically-ill COVID-19 patients are characterized by a severe inflammatory response. Pharmacologic inhibition of acute-phase inflammatory pathways such as IL-6 receptor inhibitor, Tocilizumab (TCZ) may improve patient outcomes in these cases. Consequently, the therapeutic benefit of TCZ was evaluated in this study.
   Methods: We evaluated intravenous tocilizumab in severe and critically ill adult COVID-19 patients who met pre-defined stringent CRS criteria. A single-center, prospective, observational cohort study was carried out among consecutive adult (≥18 years of age) in-patients with COVID-19 between March 20, 2020 and March 20, 2021. In total, 354 patients were included in our study. Mortality and time to hospital discharge were compared between patients who received tocilizumab treatment (n = 177) and those who did not  (n = 177).
   Results: A total of 354 patients were analyzed whereas 177 patients were included in each group. In those receiving TCZ, all-cause mortality was significantly reduced, corresponding to an adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of 0.57, (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.43-0.76; P < 0.001). Furthermore, time to discharge was significantly improved in the TCZ group (HR: 1.66; 95%CI: 1.17-2.36, P = 0.004). Invasive mechanical ventilation was not statistically different among the study groups after adjusting for confounding variables (HR: 1.38; 95%CI: 0.89-2.14; P = 0.139). Dosing frequency was independent of survival status (P = 0.676).
   Conclusion: The use of TCZ in ICU-hospitalized patients resulted in improved patient survival and reduced duration of hospitalization. Further studies are needed to confirm the efficacy of TCZ in severe and critical COVID-19 cases.