Medical Journal of The Islamic Republic of Iran (MJIRI)

  Abstract

  Background: In this study we aimed to examine the discrimination and calibration of

  a severity characterization of trauma (ASCOT) in our setting to determine whether its usage

  is appropriate to predict outcome of our trauma patients.

  Methods: This study was conducted in three hospitals. All patients admitted in studied

  hospitals were divided randomly into two equal subgroups. In each group, new coefficients

  for ASCOT were derived from the first subgroup of patients. Then the newly developed

  model was validated in the second subgroup and the measures of discrimination

  and calibration were calculated.

  Results: 78% of our patients were male and 27% were children. The study mortality

  rate was 6%, and 20% of patients had penetrating trauma. The average age of our patients

  was 28 ± 19 (Mean ± Standard Deviation).The area under ROC for ASCOTwas 0.96 and

  Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit p value was 0.81.

  Conclusion: In spite of many differences of the trauma care systems between our

  country and western countries, current survival probability models can be used in our

  country after customization and development of new coefficients derived from regional

  databases.